WBBubble: Conference Championship Week(s)

Let's start here: I think this is all overkill.

If the question is "will Michigan women's basketball make the NCAA Tournament," I think we'll have a very good idea by midnight on Thursday. Michigan will play the winner of Wednesday's Minnesota/Northwestern game. If they win, they're in. That's my take, that's where all the bracketology leads. They may get bumped to a play-in if they get unlucky elsewhere, but they'll be in the tournament nonetheless.

Michigan is 14-2 against teams below them in the NET ratings, and guess where both Minnesota and Northwestern land. For their trouble, they'll win a Friday night date with Indiana. If Michigan could pull off that upset, it might open some doors seed-wise. Michigan is, for the record, 5-7 against teams above them in the NET ratings.

In some ways, I'm offering you a release. You don't have to spend the week obsessing over other conferences. Just watch the games you want to watch. SEC Tournament looks pretty fun, the Big Ten will certainly be fun, there's plenty.

But, if you're like me, none of what I just said matters. Sometimes you're just wired for overanalysis. If that's the case, you've come to the right place.

Michigan's Outlook

In Charlie Creme's most recent ESPN Bracketology, he had Michigan listed second among the last four byes. If I'm being honest, Creme has probably been the most optimistic about the Wolverines over the course of the season, but even if he wasn't I'd still be telling you he's the one I trust the most.

Mark Schindler at the Athletic has Michigan in the last four in. Megan Gauer of Her Hoop Stats doesn't list "last four byes" separately, but she has Michigan in the last six byes for sure.

If Michigan wins their Thursday night game, I think our primary concern is the other teams near Michigan on the seed line, not the bid thieves. If Michigan were to lose Thursday, they're not out, but Michigan will be involved in the decisions much later in the selection process, and will need more teams to fall off the bubble behind them. If Michigan were to win Thursday and upset Indiana on Friday, then things get interesting with the teams a little ahead of Michigan.

Your rooting interests this week are simple: root for the teams around Michigan to lose, increasing Michigan's chances at staying out of the first four. And root for the best team in mid-tier conferences to win their conference tournaments, if there are too many bid thieves things could just get a little dicey.

Conference Tournament "week" in women's basketball actually lasts two weeks, but the majority of the action is in Week 1.

Week 1

Bid Thieves

The main quality of a bid thief is that they increase the number of bids that conference receives by one. For example, Gonzaga is safely in the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in the WCC Tournament. If Gonzaga does win the WCC, that's a one bid league. If anyone else wins it, now its a two-bid league, and we have a bid thief.

If there are too many bid thieves, the bubble gets smaller, and a team like Michigan might sweat it out more. If only one or two worst-case-scenarios come to pass, I am optimistic that with a Thursday night win the committee will make it's tightest decisions after Michigan is already in the field.

The tournaments to keep an eye on here are the Atlantic Ten, Horizon League, and Summit League. They all share some similar qualities: they're all one-ish bid leagues where the conference leader isn't exactly safe, but it's not outlandish to say that a #2-over-#1 final could allow both teams to sneak in.

In the A10, Richmond winning shuts the door on St. Joe's chances, and win over Richmond by anyone other than St. Joe's probably keeps Richmond out as well.

In the Horizon League, Green Bay winning the tournament is fine. Cleveland State winning the tournament over someone other than Green Bay is fine. A Cleveland State over Green Bay final could allow both into the field.

In the Summit League, it's South Dakota State vs. everybody. If SDSU wins, great. If SDSU loses the final, maybe they're still in the tournament but probably not over Michigan.

The Rest of the Bubble and Seeding Concerns

For major conferences, we're looking at two things: First, who is near Michigan on the bubble, and can we get those teams to lose so Michigan isn't sweating out Selection Sunday. Second, if we're assuming Michigan is in the field, who is potentially catchable seed-wise, or who could fall to the First Four so Michigan can get one of the last byes.

If a team is in the chart at all, you can assume you're rooting against them. The schedule charts are somewhat predictive, trust me if there's more games you need to know about I'll get 'em to you.

Big Ten

Obviously we care about Michigan's performance in the Big Ten Tournament on its own, but we do want to pay attention to the bubble here. Just like last week we were rooting against Maryland, we're doing it again, as Maryland could be crucial to Michigan staying out of the First Four.

If Michigan wins Thursday Penn State is stuck behind Michigan, but rooting for a Wisconsin upset wouldn't hurt.

ACC

Miami is a very solid 10th in Creme's bracket but isn't even on the bubble in Schindler's. Let's average that out to them being in Michigan's region, fighting for one of the last byes. Florida State can only fall below Michigan with a wild swing of events, but that's tournament play baby.

SEC

This is the big one, kind of. In Creme's most recent bracket, there are two SEC teams on the 8 line pretty far ahead of Michigan, and another four in the "Last Four" type columns with Michigan. The priority is the latter group.

Texas A&M and Miss St. will take care of itself: they play in the second round, and then the winner gets the nation's best team, South Carolina. One of Vandy or Auburn taking a first round upset would also be nice to maintain Michigan's bye.

Alabama and Tennessee are probably only catchable if Michigan beats Indiana, but Tennessee does have an extra chance to lose. They're on a collision course with both each other and South Carolina.

A Few More

The Pac-12, Big East, and Big 12 all have one or two teams that are on Michigan's radar. In the Pac-12, Wazzu is one of the teams Michigan will be up against for a bid or a bye. Washington is probably far enough behind Michigan that they won't matter, but at this stage in the history of Michigan athletics I will not be denying you an opportunity to root against Washington.

In the Big East, Michigan will be in Marquette's bucket if Michigan is looking at a bye, in Villanova's bucket if they're looking at the First Four. They play each other, with the winner getting UConn (probably).

The Big 12 has two teams that are ahead of Michigan and maybe catchable if Michigan goes on a little run. Kansas enters a round earlier than Iowa State.

Week 2

Starting this Saturday and going all the way to next Saturday are a handful of events in the second week of conference tourney season. Some of these schedules aren't quite settled, and by the time any of them start we'll know if any of this actually matters for Michigan. Since all of the major conferences will be out of the way, this week is all about looking out for the last few bid thieves.

If things go south for Michigan, the Ivy Tournament could have a big impact. Princeton might just be safely in the NCAA Tournament, but Columbia will be a formidable obstacle for the auto-bid. Princeton's non-conference season was quite good, and there I think a Columbia over Princeton final seeing both make the tournament is more likely than any of the Week 1 bid thieves.

Gonzaga is 100% safe, and Middle Tennessee and UNLV lean safe, so we're rooting for them to get their autobids and keep any extra teams out of the tournament. Florida Gulf Coast is in a similar boat, but on shakier ground.

If I absolutely have to I'll dig into those tournaments next week in this space, but I'm hoping that is simply not necessary.