All Blurbs: A Big Ol' Update on a Lot of Stuff
Apologies for not getting anything out last week, unfortunately my real job got in the way, but in my defense I had been at a relatively steady two-things-a-week clip before that. Usually I write about the three things I'm most excited about, but this week I'm too excited about way more than three things. This week at All Blue, small updates on many things instead of big updates on a few things.
It was my birthday last week! I celebrated by attending Michigan women's tennis' top-10 win over Pepperdine. Very fun tennis. But if you appreciate what I do here, consider dropping a small birthday present in my tip jar, or upgrading to a paid subscription. I'm just over halfway to breaking even on my hosting costs for year 1. It's a modest goal and every single dollar helps quite a bit. I'll gladly drop a sticker in the mail for you.
WBBubble Watch Sees the Effort I Expended, Laughs
All that bubble watching and they're a gosh danged nine seed. To be fair, I did start every bubble watch piece by saying "chances are Michigan is in and none of this matters" but I still didn't expect them to be so far off the bubble, I was predicting last four byes.
Michigan will play Kansas on Saturday at 2pm, with the winner playing almost-certainly-USC in the dreaded 1 v. 8/9 matchup. A good preview of a new conference-mate. I fully expect that Monday matchup to be at 10pm ET.
The Jayhawks are just below Michigan in HerHoopStats ratings (think: women's Kenpom), 45 v. 49. They played two common opponents this year, with Kansas beating up on Nebraska at home and taking a narrow road loss at Penn State. Per HHS pre-game win expectancy, Kansas' loss to Penn State was it's biggest upset loss of the season. Kansas' best win by the same metric is a huge home upset over Baylor, now a 5-seed.
It is almost shocking how evenly matched these teams are on paper. Within a point and a half in scoring average. Within half a point in defensive scoring average. Within a point and a half in both points/100 possessions and the same defensive metric. Michigan's eFG? 49.1%. Kansas? 49.0%.
HHS has this as a razor-thin 65.1-64.7 win for Michigan, which is to say a toss-up. And while it'd be tempting to say something like "Michigan has more tourney experience," Kansas is the defending NIT champion, which isn't nothing. This one should be a blast and I will simply not be recording a prediction.
WLax is So Good at Defense
Michigan women's lacrosse is now 10-0 after a one-goal victory at Penn on Saturday. Jill Smith's goal with 20 seconds left, her second of the game, sealed the 6-5 win for the Wolverines. Michigan lost the subsequent draw but fought out the final 20 seconds. For their efforts, Michigan has been rewarded with the #3 ranking, the highest in program history.
This was the first game since the season opener at Jacksonville where Michigan came out behind in draw controls, and while it ultimately did not really matter against Jacksonville (19-1 final score in that one), it absolutely did against the Quakers (I love college sports). Penn won the draws 11-4 including 8-1 in the second half. But Erin O'Grady's 12 saves were one shy of tying her season high, and the offense ground out enough goals for the W.
Michigan remains the nation's leader in scoring defense, allowing 5.5 goals a game. No one else is under six, and some of Michigan's best performances have come against top teams: 4 goals allowed to Denver, 3 to USC, 5 to Penn, all ranked teams.
In order to match the best start in program history, 13-0 in 2019, Michigan needs three more wins. Michigan will be the favorite in two of those games: @ Marquette this weekend and against EMU at a neutral site in Detroit. But those games sandwich a massive home contest against #3 Maryland. If Michigan were to win that game, I think you have to start talking about Michigan as a team with a real shot at a top-4 national seed and hosting rights through the quarterfinals. Lax Tourney Watch incoming sometime in the next few weeks.
I Went to a PWHL Game
Last weekend I attended the game between PWHL Ottawa and PWHL Boston at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. In front of a US-record 13,736, Boston won in a shootout. Boston was the nominal favorite, featuring Hilary Knight, among the several best players in women's hockey history, and several Michiganders. I'm not really breaking new ground here by saying it's a travesty that there are five Michigan-born players in this league and none of them even had the option of staying home for college. Michigan and Michigan State need varsity women's hockey.
Going into the game I was somewhat convinced that venue concerns were one of the main holdups to Detroit getting a PWHL franchise. The more I research, the more I'm convinced it could work. PWHL arena capacities range from 3850 in the Toronto suburbs to Minnesota sharing XCel Energy (17,954) with the NHL's Wild. Minnesota is the only team that plays in an NHL barn full-time, with New York sometimes playing at the Islanders' UBS Arena and otherwise playing in Connecticut.
I don't think a PWHL Franchise could be the full-time third tenant of Little Caesars. It would be difficult for scheduling and is honestly just too big; Minnesota shares an NHL barn, but Detroit holds the (US) attendance record because Minnesota hasn't filled it yet. (League-wide record is held by a sold-out Toronto game at the Rogers Centre, where the Maple Leafs play.)
USA Hockey Arena in Plymouth is 3504 seated and claim to have standing room for another 1000. If PWHL Detroit (though I assume they'll be giving expansion franchises actual names) could do something like a 75/25 split between USA Hockey Arena and LCA, I think that is a very viable venue for the time being.
I Watched Tennis On My Birthday
I spent a good portion of my birthday watching #2 Michigan play #8 Pepperdine in women's tennis. Michigan won 4-2, losing the doubles point but putting on a fairly dominant singles performance.
At #1 Singles, Kari Miller and Lisa Zaar played one of the most fun college tennis matches I have ever watched. They are both in the top 15 as individuals, and proved it. Miller won in straight sets, but that is simply not fair to how Zaar performed. There were at least five 20+ shot rallies throughout the match, but Zaar could never get the big hinge points and Miller won fairly handily.
Meanwhile, freshman Piper Charney continues her impressive debut season. Charney and Gala Mesochoritou were the last two on court with Michigan needing just one of them to win, and Charney bageled her opponent to win the third set and the match for Michigan. With so much older talent, in some ways it feels like if there's a year for Michigan this is it. But Charney's emergence is proof that this isn't a team that finally has the pieces in place, it's a program ready to compete against all comers.
Championship Previews
Wrestling Natty
The NCAA men's wrestling championship is this weekend, beginning Thursday with the championship rounds on Saturday night. Michigan had wrestlers qualify in nine out of the ten weight classes. While they might not be able to match their national runner-up performance in 2022, Michigan does have a shot at it's third consecutive year with an individual national championship.
Stanford transfer Shane Griffith is ranked #3 at 174 lbs per Intermat, but got the 4-seed in the championships. He's Michigan's highest-seeded wrestler. Griffith was scheduled to wrestle 3-seed Edmond Ruth in the Big Ten Final but medically forfeited, and has not faced any of the higher seeds this season.
At 133 pounds is Dylan Ragusin in the fifth spot. Ragusin has a notable win in Michigan's loss to #1 Penn State, and also defeated the 4-seed during Michigan's duel win over Rutgers.
Sergio Lemley (8, 141), Austin Gomez (6, 149), Will Lewan (9, 155), Cameron Amine (10, 165), and Lucas Davison (10, Hwt) all join Griffith and Ragusin in their respective top tens. Jaden Bullock (12, 184) and Michael Deaugustino (18, 125) will also compete for a national title. When a schedule exists I'll make a little Twitter graphic.
Swimming Natty
Women
The women's swim/dive National Championships start this Wednesday in Athens, Georgia. The bulk of the competition will happen Thursday-Saturday, and the Wolverines enter ranked #13.
Michigan has two swimmers and a relay ranked in the top 12 of their respective events. Leading the way individually is Stephanie Balduccini, the sixth seed in the 100 free. While she placed 4th in this event at the B1G Championships, her fall time from the last time the Wolverines were in Athens still held up ahead of the times her opponents put up at B1Gs.
Hannah Bellard has the 11th-best time going into the 200 butterfly. She won bronze at B1Gs, and like Balduccini she returns to the site of her season best. Michigan also enters with a top 5 time in the 400 freestyle relay, the last event of the national championships.
Men
The men's championship is a full week later, beginning Wednesday the 27th in Indianapolis. The Michigan men are ranked 16th.
Here's the short version: Its Gal Groumi week. The Big Ten Champion in both the 200 Butterfly and the 200 individual medley, he comes in with a high ranking in both of those events. 200 IM is topped by three Arizona State swimmers and a Cal swimmer before hitting Gal at #5, he'll enter the 200 fly seeded 3rd, as well as the 100 fly seeded 10th.
Michigan's only other top 10 competitor coming into the competition is the 400 medley relay team. Michigan won silver at B1Gs, behind Indiana. Elsewhere Michigan's top individuals are Bence Szabados, 21st seed in the 50 Free, and Tyler Ray, who joins Groumi in the top 15 of both the 100 and 200 fly.
WGym B1Gs
Michigan will enter the women's Big Ten Championship as the two seed behind Michigan State. A win would be very cool, especially given the East Lansing locale of the Championship, but ultimately Michigan is just looking to put up the best score possible for NCAA Tourney seeding.
Michigan is almost certainly stuck in a three seed for regionals, but they do host a regional at Crisler Center. If they can put up a solid score, maybe the committee will give them a slightly better draw. Top 2 advance out of regionals, so Michigan will be looking for a beatable two-seed.