Can Michigan Make The NCAA Tournament?

That's the question isn't it? Can Michigan make the NCAA Tournament? In men's soccer, women's soccer, and field hockey that remains an open question.

I was absent last week (my honeymoon went great thank you, also I have been married for three years so no specific congratulations are in order). in the meantime the road to the tournament became a lot clearer but far narrower for three Michigan teams. I'll be back in my normal slot Thursday to talk about Volleyball (win on FOX!) and Tennis and other stuff, but let's answer the big question in three sports.

If you want to look at my spreadsheets (which include both rankings and a viewing guide), here you go.

Field Hockey

The NCAA Tournament field for Field Hockey is quite small. With ten automatic bids for conference champs, only eight at-large bids are up for grabs. Michigan is the 7th (and final) seed in the Big Ten Field Hockey Tournament, which they happen to host. Michigan opens against Rutgers, on Thursday at 2pm. A second game would be Friday at 3pm, against either Iowa or Maryland.

The simplest way into the NCAA Tournament: Go on a run at home to win the tournament from the bottom seed, starting with national #3 Rutgers, most likely followed by two more top ten teams. Win the Big Ten's autobid and sleep easy before selection Sunday.

Can the Wolverines still sneak into a tournament as an at-large? Right now, quick bracketology shows that Michigan is the fourth team out of the tournament. That is, by virtue of being #18 in RPI, Michigan is the 12th best team that is not a favorite to win its conference. In front of Michigan in line are Ohio State, UMass, and Penn State.

Ohio State and Penn State will play each other, guaranteeing that one of them will not pick up any more wins between now and selection Sunday. National #1 Northwestern awaits the winner. If Northwestern takes out the OSU/PSU winner and makes the final, and Michigan wins two games to make the final, Michigan might be able to jump the line and grab priority among those three Big Ten bubble teams, even with a loss to Northwestern. From there, they'd need help elsewhere.

In general, when you are on the bubble, you want the top seed (or, at least, the top ranked team in RPI) to win every conference tourney. For example, if we look at the Big East, Liberty is the one-seed in the conference and #6 in the country in RPI. No other team in the conference is inside the national top 20. That means if someone other than Liberty wins the Big East, Liberty will still get a bid, leaving one less bid for the bottom of the bubble.

Here's your basic rooting guide:

Atlantic 10:
Root For: St. Joe's, Root Against: UMass, the field

Ivy League:
Root For: Harvard, Root Against: the field

Big East:
Root For: Liberty, Root Against: the field

ACC:
Root For: North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Root Against: Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College

In the A10, Big East, and Ivy League, it's straightforward: you want the top seed to win so they don't take up an at-large. You can especially root against UMass so they fall behind Michigan in RPI.

In the ACC, any of the top seeds can win the whole thing, but you want the lower seeds to get out as soon as possible, in case that is enough for Michigan to pass them just by making the B1G Tournament final.

The only other conference that has more than one bubble team is the America East, with both UAlbany and UMass Lowell in consideration. Chances are, the team that loses the presumptive AE final between them falls below Michigan in RPI and makes this moot, especially if Michigan were to make the BTT final.

Bottom Line

Win a home tournament and you're in. Win two games and you might be able to hope for the best elsewhere and grab the last at-large. Even if Michigan did make the final, it wouldn't be a guarantee. The committee has the right to make selections that do not go on pure RPI, but the math would work in Michigan's favor.

Men's Soccer

I won't bury the lede: Michigan is well off the bubble to make the men's soccer tournament. It's simple: Michigan will make the NCAA Tournament if they win the Big Ten Championship and will not if they don't.

Michigan had a strange season, losing just once in conference play while also only winning two games. Their five ties are the most ever recorded by a Big Ten team. Still, that was enough to get them the fifth seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They'll open at 4-seed Northwestern, one of Michigan's two wins. From there, its likely a date with conference champ Indiana, but they could luck out and get a home game against Wisconsin. If Michigan makes the final, the most likely opponent is Penn State, the Wolverines' only B1G loss.

Bottom Line

No other conference info matters here. It's all up to Michigan.

Women's Soccer

After a bit of a skid to close out the season, women's soccer finished 10th in the conference and missed the Big Ten Tournament. Despite that, their strong record in non-conference play has them in position where the selection show is worth watching. 33 teams get at-large bids to the NCAA Women's Soccer Tournament. Michigan, at #37 in RPI, is ranked 26th among bubble teams (once again, that is teams not favored to win their conference tourney). That's just barely in, and if a couple of conference championships go the wrong way the bubble could get tighter.

One caveat: The committee does have some leeway, and if some bid thieves win their conferences and Michigan falls from the last 8 in to the last 4 in, the committee may simply choose a team that had a better conference performance. But, if results elsewhere go the right way, it might keep Michigan in a spot where they just can't justify leaving the Wolverines out. As always, the main thing is just to root for the top seed and against the field, but I'll throw in some specific teams you want to root against:

American Athletic Conference:
Root For: Memphis, Root Against: the field

Atlantic 10:
Root For: St. Louis, Root Against: the field

Big 12:
Root For: Texas Tech, BYU Root Against: the field

Big East:
Root For: Georgetown, Xavier, Root Against: UConn, Providence

SEC:
Root For: the Field, Root Against: Texas A&M, Auburn

Sun Belt:
Root For: South Alabama, Root Against: the Field

In the AAC, A10, and Sun Belt, they're a one-bid conference if the one-seed wins and a near-guarantee two-bid conference if the champion is not. Root for the one-seeds.

In the Big 12, you want either of the top seeds to win, as any other win could be a bid thief. Michigan's closest threat on the bubble, TCU, lost last night, so there are no specific "root to lose as fast as possible" teams.

In the Big East, it's possible all four of these teams make the big tournament. We're rooting for the teams that are safe, and rooting against the teams on the bubble. Providence specifically could fall below Michigan in RPI with a loss to Xavier in the semis.

Finally, in the SEC, every team other than A&M and Auburn is safely in the NCAA Tourney. LSU and Tennessee, the teams near Michigan on the bubble, have already lost. The only rooting interest left is against the Aggies or Tigers to steal a bid.

Bottom Line

Women's soccer can't do anything to help themselves, they can only sit at home and hope other teams hurt themselves. They might make it, but they want as many bubble teams to lose early in their conference tournaments as possible, and as few bid thieves as possible.