All Blue: WBBubble Update, Lax Comeback Kids

Michigan has just one women's basketball game left, senior night at Crisler against Purdue. It is the last game that will be played in the Big Ten Regular Season this year, so they will go into it knowing exactly which seeding scenarios are left on the table. In this week's All Blue, I'll bring you some updates to my Tuesday WBBubble newsletter, including a rooting guide for Sundays game.

We won't get out of here without talking about some lacrosse though, don't worry.

WBBubble Update

Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Every single Big Ten team is down to one game remaining, and they're all on Sunday. Michigan will be the sixth, seventh, or eighth seed in the Big Ten Tournament, as Illinois' loss to Michigan State last night took the worst-case-scenario nine-seed off the table. If you want to see every single scenario, I have a spreadsheet for that. Feel free to copy to your own drive so you can play with the filters.

Let's start here: if Michigan wins on Sunday, they cannot be seeded lower than seventh. If Michigan wins on Sunday after Indiana has already beat Maryland, Michigan will be the sixth seed. That's the bottom line. However, any other set of results brings the Penn State game into play.

Maybe a chart would help.

Game by game, here's what's at stake for both Michigan and the teams involved in each of Sunday's games.

Iowa @ Ohio State, 1p, Fox

This one doesn't matter for Michigan, and Ohio State has clinched the #1 seed. This one has HUGE implications for Iowa though, who are currently tied for the second seed with Indiana (who plays Maryland Sunday), but do not currently hold the tiebreaker.

If only one team out of Iowa and Indiana wins, that team will win the second seed outright with 15 wins.

If Iowa and Indiana both win, they will tie at 15 wins, but Iowa will hold the tiebreaker due to a superior record over Ohio State.

If Iowa and Indiana both lose, they will tie at 14 wins, but Indiana will hold the tiebreaker due to a superior record over Nebraska (hey why did Iowa lose to Nebraska did something weird happen at the end of that game, did they stop having Caitlin Clark take shots for hubris reasons or something like that).

Or, shorter: if Iowa wins, they are the second seed. If Iowa loses, Indiana is the second seed. Indiana will go into their game against Maryland knowing their seed, no matter what.

Still, I am issuing a very tepid Root for Ohio State, as I think I'd prefer Indiana going into their game having clinched the two seed and wanting to win it outright than having clinched the three seed and playing a slight comedown game.

Minnesota @ Penn State, 1p, B1G+

Minnesota and Michigan will be forming an alliance on Sunday. Minnesota is locked into either the 11th or 12th seed, and winning alone may not be enough to get to 11. Winning and a Michigan win over Purdue on Sunday gets them there though.

Penn State can be seeded anywhere from sixth to ninth, but a loss in this game means they can't get higher than eighth. If they win, they can't be any lower than eighth, and will be rooting for our downfall.

We're Rooting for Minnesota pretty hard, as it takes the eighth seed completely off the table for Michigan. A Penn State win isn't disastrous for Michigan, as they can still stay out of the eight seed by winning themselves. But a Penn State win + a Michigan loss locks up the eighth seed for Michigan and we don't even want that to be possible.

Michigan State @ Wisconsin, 2p, BTN

For starters, this game has no impact on Michigan's seed.

Michigan State will be either the fourth or fifth seed, right on the line for that crucial double bye. They need to win and get help later in the day to get that double bye. Nebraska, the other team in the hunt, holds the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head win. Currently, they are tied at 11 wins.

If only one wins, that team will win the fourth seed outright.

If MSU and Nebraska both win OR both lose, they will tie and Nebraska will get the double bye.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, will be either the 9th, 10th, or 11th seed. They take themselves out of the 11th with a win, but which seed they end up will still hinge on the Penn State and Illinois results. For more, look at the spreadsheet.

Root for Wisconsin because funny.

Northwestern @ Rutgers, 2p, B1G+

I am LOCKED IN for this game. Is it the most important of the day? Who's to say, but this is a direct battle for last place in the conference. Currently, Northwestern has 3 wins and Rutgers has 2.

If Northwestern wins, they are the 13th seed outright.

If Rutgers wins, they tie at 3 wins, split the season series, and Rutgers wins the tiebreaker due to a superior record over Nebraska.

I love that this worked out this way. I cannot promise good basketball, but I can promise two teams that don't want to be in last place. Could be fun. No rooting interest issued, go with your heart.

Maryland @ Indiana, 3p, Peacock

This is the game of the day for Michigan, as Michigan's seeding largely depends on this game. Maryland currently has 9 wins to Michigan's 8, but Michigan holds the tiebreaker due to their head-to-head win over the Terps.

Indiana, as we've already covered, will be locked into either the 2 or 3 seed by the time this game starts. Maryland can still end up 6th, 7th, or 8th depending on these results.

Michigan needs Maryland to lose. A Maryland win guarantees Maryland finishes ahead of Michigan, meaning their seed would hinge on the Penn State result. If Maryland loses, a Michigan win means they're the sixth seed, regardless of what happens elsewhere. The chart's some a little ways up. For the love of Pettiti, Root for Indiana.

Nebraska @ Illinois, 4p, BTN

Doesn't matter for Michigan. We've already gone over the implications for Nebraska in the MSU section, a win for Nebraska and they clinch a double bye, a loss for Nebraska could give them an extra game in Minneapolis depending on MSU's result.

Illinois can be the 8th, 9th, or 10th seed. Whether they win or lose, they will be impacted by the Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue results, but a win takes the 10th seed out of play, while a loss takes the 8th seed off the table.

Root for Nebraska for similar reasons to why I issued the root for Wisconsin.

Purdue @ Michigan, 7p, FS1

Hey, what are you doing Sunday night? Me, I'll be at Crisler Center, where the Michigan Wolverines Women's Basketball Team will be celebrating Senior Night.

At this point I've broken down every scenario I can. The best combination of results for Michigan is a Maryland loss and a Michigan win. If those things happen, nothing else matters, and by gametime we'll know exactly what, if anything, is at stake. Root for Michigan, that's sort of the whole thing we do here.

Elsewhere on the Bubble

I'll do a full bubble update with conference tournament picks on Monday or Tuesday, but let's just say it's been a mixed week on the bubble for Michigan. The OSU loss was expected and probably didn't impact their projections too much. Michigan really needs that win over Purdue, a loss likely means they're starting the Big Ten Tournament in the first four out. Here's a few big hinge games for Michigan outside of the Big Ten. Root against the team in italics:

• Maryland @ Indiana, Sun 1p, Peacock: I lied we're staying in the Big Ten for just a moment. Not only does a Maryland loss help Michigan in the Big Ten, it may very well be the case that whoever shakes out ahead on Sunday is in the last four byes, with the other dropping to the last four in or worse.
• Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State, Milwaukee @ Green Bay, both games Sat 2p, ESPN+: We're still trying to get the Horizon League down to one bid, and a bad final-day loss by either of these teams might just do it. One of these teams will be our preferred Horizon champion, but they can help Michigan by losing first.
• Columbia @ Brown (Fri, 4p), @ Yale (Sat, 3p), ESPN+
• Princeton v. Harvard (Fri, 5p), v. Dartmouth (Sat, 4p), ESPN+: Much like the Horizon, we're trying to get the Ivy down to one bid. Princeton is likely the safer team, a series of Columbia losses down the stretch probably benefits Michigan more than Princeton doing the same. Either way, chances are you're rooting for the one seed in the Ivy tournament, unless Princeton gets the 2 seed but still looks completely safe.

Some other games to circle but I have already written a lot of words:

• Marquette @ Butler, Sat 3p, Flo
• Kansas v. #20 Oklahoma, Sat 5p, ESPN+
• Arizona v. #8 UCLA, Sat 8p, Pac12
• Auburn @ Florida, Sun Noon, SECN
• Vanderbilt v. Georgia, Sun 2p, SECN+
• Miss. St. v. Mizzou, Sun 3p, SECN+
• Texas A&M v. Alabama, Sun 3p, SECN+

Lacrosse Brings Home Comeback Wins

#6 Michigan women's lacrosse remains undefeated, finally having its first close shave on Wednesday night at Arizona State. Michigan entered the game with the #1 scoring defense in the country. It's tempting to say that that is a fluke based on their early season schedule, but entering the game their last four defensive halves were:

• 1 goal for #13 USC
• 2 goals for USC
• 1 goal for #9 Denver
• 3 goals for Denver

Junior keeper Erin O'Grady leads the nation in Save Percentage and Goals Against Average. This defense is good-good, and is going to steal some low scoring games for Michigan.

On Wednesday night in Arizona, someone finally figured out how to score on Michigan. It didn't happen quickly, with a 1-1 first quarter that became a 3-3 tie midway through the second. When the Sun Devils scored with 6:04 to go before halftime, it was the first time Michigan had given up a 4-goal half all season. It was 5-3 at halftime, and 6-3 when Calli Norris scored two consecutive goals, her third and fourth of the season. Jill Smith completed her hat trick to tie it up at 6, and it was back and forth from there.

Down 9-7 with just 6 minutes to play, the Michigan defense reminded everyone why they're #1, holding ASU scoreless for the rest of the contest. Smith scored her fifth of the game to cut the lead to 1. With just 2:36 to play, Jane Fetterolf tied the game at 9, her second of the day for her second multi-goal game of the season.

Josie Gooch won the ensuing draw, and who else but Jill Smith earned a free position shot and scored it. Michigan took its first lead of the day with 1:20 left, but it only matters who leads when the clock hits zeroes. Arizona State got off a flurry of shots in the last minute, but O'Grady controlled a save with under ten seconds left and Michigan started celebrating. Now at 5-0, they have just one game left before conference play begins (though they do have a handful of mid-season non-conference games), hosting #19 Colorado, Saturday at noon.

The #13 Michigan men's lacrosse team headed down to Jacksonville riding a three-game win streak. Like the women's game it was a back-and-forth affair, with two Jacksonville two-goal runs being the only runs of the game heading to the second half. Jacksonville scored the first goal of the second to take a 9-6 lead, putting Michigan in real danger against the unranked Dolphins.

That was the end of that for Jacksonville. After not scoring two consecutive goals for the whole game, Michigan fired off a seven-goal run that lasted until there was just one minute left in the game. In a ten-minute span in the third quarter, Justin Tiernan recorded a hat trick, giving him four goals on the day. Michael Beohm scored two goals of his own, and assisted on two of Tiernan's. Michigan led Jacksonville 13-9 by the time Jacksonville scored to break the Michigan won, but it was too late. Michigan won the faceoff and killed 40 seconds, then killed off the last 35 seconds while Jacksonville possessed the ball, 13-10 final.

The men have two more non-conference games, both against ranked teams, before they hit the Big Ten schedule. There's a road trip to #19 Delaware on Saturday in the battle of the winged helmets, and then next weekend's home contest Sunday the 10th against #20 Harvard. If the weather's nice you'll see me at the Harvard game.