All Blue: #1 Maryland v. #2 Michigan Women's Lacrosse

In 2018, the fifth season of Michigan varsity women's lacrosse, the Wolverines were led by new head coach Hannah Nielsen. The season finale saw Nielsen helm Michigan in their first ever win over a ranked opponent, beating #16 Penn State. It was Michigan's seventh win of the season, a program high. A positive sign that the new head coach had things going in the right direction.

One year later, the Wolverines eclipsed their 7-win program high in their eighth game of the season. They opened 2019 13-0 with four additional ranked wins, climbed into the poll and up to #7, then made their first NCAA Tournament appearance with hosting rights.

Nielsen is now in her seventh season in charge and her squad is undefeated at 11 wins, two short of surpassing 2019's start. Since the end of the 2019 season, two total top 25 polls have been released without the Wolverines earning a rank. Barring a massive collapse, it seems likely this will be the third consecutive season where they're ranked wire-to-wire. They were ranked #12 to open the season, knocked off #4 Denver three games in, and have beaten three more ranked teams on their ride all the way to #2.

Just one obstacle remains in the way between Michigan and their first-ever #1 ranking in women's lacrosse: #1 Maryland, who will visit UM Lacrosse Stadium this Saturday at 12:30. As always for WLax, admission is free. The game will also be broadcast on Big Ten Network.

From the moment Hannah Nielsen arrived on campus, Michigan has been building, improving little-by-little, brick-by-brick. The goal has been for Michigan to have opportunities like this one, and now we're here.

Go Blue.

The Stakes

With Maryland's loss to Penn last night, a tiny bit of shine comes off the matchup. If Michigan wins, they will be the #1 team in the country. I think the same is no longer true of Michigan, I imagine they'd both fall but remain in the top 5 (though, top 5 Penn soon? Their only loss is to #2 Michigan?) I'd say those are stakes enough, but to dig just a little deeper, the top 4 teams get home field until the semi-finals in the NCAA Tourney. In a relatively weak year for the ACC, a Michigan-Maryland-Northwestern 1-1 triangle might get all three in the top spots. Strictly speaking I don't think this is the swing game for Michigan to host all the way through, but it'd help.

The conference stakes got bigger after Penn State upset previous #1 Northwestern last week. This game's winner will now have the inside track to the Big Ten regular season championship and B1G tourney #1 seed and bye to the semis, or at least a chance to make things weird tie-breaker wise if the M/Md/NW 1-1 triangle does come to pass.

Michigan

So Far

If you're a regular here, or even if you just read the intro, you know the basics. Michigan is 11-0. They opened the season by destroying two inferior opponents, before facing off against two straight ranked teams in a crucial "prove it" back-to-back.

Michigan was unbothered. They won the home opener against #4 Denver, 8-4, and then beat future conference-mate and then-#13 USC in LA, 9-3. Two straight ranked opponents, not a single multi-goal quarter for those ranked opponents.

In the seven games since Michigan has added two more ranked wins, first over #19 Colorado and then #15 Penn. They're 2-0 in the Big Ten having beaten Ohio State and Rutgers. In their most recent outing, they had their largest halftime deficit of the season, a three-goal hole that ballooned to five after Marquette scored the first two of the third. Michigan scored the final 12 goals of the game to win 18-11.

Along the way, Michigan has solidified it's argument for being the best defense in the country. Their 63 goals allowed is third-best nationally, but on a per-game basis their 5.75 goals is the only sub-6 mark and one of only two sub-7. They've done this while playing some of their best defensive games against their strongest opponents.

Names to Know

Erin O'Grady, Goalkeeper, Jr.

If Michigan's success depends on its defense, then who better to feature first than one of the best backstops in the country. O'Grady leads the NCAA in save percentage at 65.5%, and lest you consider that this stat is propped up by facing a low number of shots because her defense is so good in front of her, 91 saves leads all Big Ten keepers.

For her efforts, she has been named national defensive player of the week twice this season, and won the same award in the Big Ten three times. She was also named to the mid-season Tewaaraton (lax heisman) Watch List. Michigan's outfield players can do everything right Saturday, but converting that to a win may just be on O'Grady's stick.

Jill Smith, Attack, Jr.

You wanna watch the goal again? Good, because I want to watch the goal again.

The Sportscenter Top 10 doesn't have quite the same cachet it did when I was a kid, but a women's lacrosse goal being named the #1 play, as this was, is pretty sick imo. She has since scored an additional behind-the-back goal.

Remember when I said that Michigan scored the final 12 goals of the Marquette game? Smith scored the last four of them, giving her 7 on the day. She has recorded hat tricks in six of Michigan's 11 games, and scored in all but one. The offense runs through Smith, and she's fun as hell to watch play lacrosse.

Kaylee Dyer, Attack, Jr.

The other head of Michigan's two-headed scoring monster, Dyer has 33 goals to Smith's 35. Dyer and Smith have combined for 68 goals this season, the rest of the roster has combined for 64. Dyer is slightly more efficient with her shots than Smith, taking almost 20 fewer with similar goal counts. Any time either have the ball, something could happen.

Maddie Burns, Defense, Sr.

Maddie Burns is one of the anchors of Michigan's huge defense. This is the second straight season where she has landed on the pre-season Tewaaraton Watch List. Burns and Grace Callahan share the team lead in turnovers caused at 14, and Burns just edges Callahan on ground balls, 20 to 18.

Maryland

So Far

Maryland opened the season at #9, making a similar climb to the top 2 as Michigan. This game would have been #2 v. #3 if not for Northwestern taking a conveniently timed loss last week. Maryland is 9-2, with and overtime loss to now-#11 Florida, and Wednesday' night's 13-9 loss to Penn.

Maryland's list of wins is not unsimilar to Michigan's: three ranked wins, a bunch of lopsided wins over unranked opponents, Big Ten wins over Ohio State and Rutgers.

Like Michigan, they thrive on defense with the fourth best scoring defense in the country. On offense, they are one goal-per-game better than Michigan. This will be a war of attrition between two teams that like to frustrate their opponents into low-scoring games.

Names to Know

Attack

Maryland's attack is much more even than Michigan's. While Michigan's big two have the clear lead in points, the Terps' point leader isn't even in its top 3 goal scorers. Eloise Clevenger has 40 assists this season, and leads the Big Ten. By contrast, the Michigan Wolverines have 53 assists as a team.

Hannah Leubecker is Maryland's scoring leader at 32 goals, but Kori Edmondson and Libby May are nipping right at her heels with 22 and 20, respectively.

Defense

Meghan Ball leads the Maryland defense. She's caused 19 turnovers and picked up 17 ground balls. She's also prolific in the circle, with 41 draw control wins.

Emily Sterling is near O'Grady in the conference's keeper hierarchy. Sterling is second to Wolverine O'Grady in save percentage and goals per game.

What I'm Watching

Jamming Maryland Passing Lanes

Maryland sets up goals. Their offense is run through a player that racks up assists, with her teammates finishing for her. 55% of Maryland's goals are assisted, the second highest rate in the conference. If Michigan's defense is as tight as it usually is, they could make it very difficult for Maryland to score the way they like to.

Michigan on the Counter

Michigan, meanwhile, has the lowest assist rate in the conference at just 40%. Michigan's attackers, specifically Smith and Dyer, can create their own shots and create them fast. I think Michigan is going to try to score early in the shot clock, running the ball off of turnovers while Maryland is still trying to set up it's defense.

Draw Control

Michigan has won 62% of it's draws (faceoffs) this season. A key component of Michigan's closest shaves is their opponents' ability to minimize that advantage. Arizona State kept it within one draw and one goal. Penn dominated the circle, 11-4, in Michigan's lowest-scoring game of the season. (Jacksonville also dominated draws in a 19-1 win for Michigan, so there's that.)

Maryland wins draws at the exact same 62% clip. In their loss to Florida, the Gators controlled the draws, 15-12, including the only draw in overtime. Penn won draw controls 15-11 in Maryland's second loss.

The battle in the circle will be fascinating to watch, a Michigan advantage would be a great sign even in a back-and-forth game.

Bottom Line

Michigan did it's part, marching into it's first big conference contest undefeated. The Terps got close to doing theirs, but lost to Penn last night. The Penn game doesn't move the needle much for me as far as how I think this game will go; Maryland's still an elite team that lost to another really good team. Maryland will be looking to nurse their wounded pride, Michigan will be looking to strike while they're down.

It's crazy that they're even here. A decade into their existence, and Michigan women's lacrosse is a mid-season national championship contender. If you've watched this team's rise under Hannah Nielsen, you know they're not happy just to be here. Michigan is on the doorstep of lacrosse's east coast elite. Time to bust down the door.