All Blue's Spring Championship Weekend

This weekend, four different teams will play in or complete their conference tournaments. Women's tennis will play the entire Big Ten Tournament right here in Ann Arbor, the lacrosse teams will host their B1G First Round games, and Water Polo will head to Harvard for a must-win CWPA Championship.

Women's Lacrosse's Trophy Quest Begins

Women's lacrosse will host Johns Hopkins in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, Saturday at 3:30 on B1G+ (unfortunately). Michigan is the third seed in the tournament. Michigan's previous meeting with the Blue Jays was perhaps their biggest win of the season, a 13-9 victory after being down 4 at the half. Michigan had their worst first half all season, giving up 8 goals, before a 9-1 second half turned the match around and gave the Wolverines a crucial victory.

Michigan remains the #1 scoring defense in the nation, giving up just 6.69 goals per game. They are the only team under 7 GPG, and one of only two under 8 (Boston College has allowed 7.88 GPG, everyone else is 8+.) A formidable backline is bolstered by Michigan's Tewaaraton Award candidate, kepper Erin O'Grady. O'Grady has been an absolute beast in goal, with her .589 save percentage leading the NCAA.

The key to this game is "don't go down by four goals at the half and need a massive comeback", but the secondary key to this game is draw controls. The Blue Jays' Jennifer Berry has won the most draw controls in the Big Ten with 102. Right behind her? Michigan's Lily Montemarano with 98.

The winner of Michigan/Hopkins will play Northwestern on Thursday May 2nd at 1pm (BTN, the real one). Michigan would love to win their first Big Ten hardware, but their goals stretch beyond that. Michigan will make the NCAA Tournament and host an opening-weekend two-round regional no matter what, but the NCAA WLax Tourney gives a bye to the top 3 teams, and guarantees the top 4 teams home field through the quarters.

Michigan is currently fourth in RPI, and a win over Johns Hopkins might be enough to keep them permanently ensconced in the top 4. To get into the top 3, they probably need to beat Northwestern and make the Big Ten final. It would not hurt to see Penn lose in the Ivy Tournament as well. But it starts on Saturday. One match at a time.

Women's Tennis Hosts the Big Ten Championship

I'm not going to sugar coat it: anything other than Michigan winning the Big Ten Tournament to sweep the regular season and tournament titles would involve a huge upset. These Wolverines came through the Big Ten season unscathed, with a 10-0 Big Ten record bolstering a 24-3 overall tally. The Wolverines have not lost since March.

In fact, Michigan went 39-3 in singles in conference play. 39-3! They only lost two doubles points, meaning in total Michigan only allowed their opponent on the scoreboard 5 times. No opponent won two points. With a home tournament, this should not get particularly hairy for Michigan. If the tournament goes chalk, the championship will be against Ohio State, who Michigan beat 4-1.

As far as their actual opponents go, Michigan got a bye out of the first and beat the crap out of Purdue this morning, winning 4-0 and sweeping the first sets. Tomorrow they'll play Wisconsin in the semifinals at noon. In the regular season match, Michigan won 4-0 and only dropped two sets in the process. The final is Sunday, also at noon.

Michigan has spent most of the season at #2 nationally after losing to #1 Oklahoma State in the ITA Indoor final. At this point, Michigan is more or less guaranteed one of the top 4 seeds that will ensure hosting the first three rounds of the tournament, but it'd be nice to stay at #2 to avoid the Cowgirls until the final.

Men's Lax Bids to Repeat

At noon on Saturday, Michigan will host Ohio State in the first round of the Big Ten Championship. It is a rematch of their regular season finale, which Michigan won in Columbus, 13-12. The score both obscures how good Michigan was for most of the match and how close they came to losing it.

Michigan held a 13-7 lead when they scored 10 seconds into the fourth, and with two minutes to play the Buckeyes had only narrowed the lead by 2, 13-9. In quick succession, Ohio State scored three goals, winning each subsequent faceoff. With a minute to go Michigan's lead was down to 1, but Taylor Hunter made the save on OSU's attempt to tie, corralled the loose ball, and that was that. Michigan won and got to host instead of the other way around.

The winner of Michigan's contest will play 1-seed Johns Hopkins, who gets a bye. It will be at a neutral site (oddly enough, Ohio State), but they'll have the extra rest. That game would be Thursday 5/2 at 6:30, BTN.

Michigan probably cannot make the NCAA Tournament without repeating as Big Ten Tournament Champions. The path to an at-large is extremely narrow. There are only 8 at-larges in men's lax, and the ACC only has five teams and therefore does not get an autobid. As such, the ACC's top teams tend to hog the at-larges.

With Michigan at #14 in RPI, it would require a very surprising series of events for Michigan to get a bid without winning the tournament, and it certainly cannot happen without at least making the final. If the Wolverines beat OSU and Hopkins, and Maryland is the team that beats them in the final, and they get a ton of help elsewhere, there is a chance they can steal the last bid. But that's me talking, I assure you that in the room they are talking like it's win and in, and they're probably right.

Water Polo at the CWPAs

Michigan water polo plays in the CWPA, and with only 9 teams making the NCAA Tournament this is a one-bid league. If Michigan wants to make their first tournament under second-year head coach Cassie Churnside, they have to win the CWPA Tournament, hosted by Harvard this weekend. The whole tournament is on ESPN+, a real treat to see such easily accessible water polo coverage. Michigan opens on Saturday at noon, with a Sunday noon final.

The good news is that we're only talking about winning two games. Michigan gets a bye out of their first round and will play the winner of Harvard/Saint Francis, which is to say Michigan probably plays Harvard. Saint Francis has given up double digit goals any time they have played the Wolverines or Crimson, while reaching double digits itself in just five of it's 28 games against D1 competition.

In the end, this tournament will likely come down to Michigan and Princeton. Princeton beat Michigan in both of their in-season matchups, with margins of 2 and 3 goals. The winner will go to the Tournament, the loser will not. With everything to play for, it should be an exciting weekend.