All Blue Goes Floor to Ceiling

All of the sudden, we are in the homestretch of the athletic calendar. The winter sports have had their championships (or Michigan has been eliminated, one or the other, or otherwise I don't really cover hockey), the calendar has turned to April, it is spring sport season alone.

Between WBB and WLax I basically didn't talk about anything else for the entirety of March, so today we'll give a quick recap of six teams in three sports: golf, tennis, and lacrosse. Rowing, outdoor track, and softball and baseball don't have their Big Ten Championships until May, so we'll focus on the sooner ones. The order here reflects the order the Big Ten Championships will be played in.

Women's Golf

So Far: Michigan has had a positive spring, most recently winning the Chattanooga Classic. Two weeks prior, they had come in second at the Valspar Augusta Classic. The second place finish was far more impressive, as they tied with #2 South Carolina, and beat #4 Wake Forest and #10 Auburn. It was a great field. Per the computer rankings, the Wolverines are up to #36.

Also I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that last week Hailey Borja tied for eighth at the Augusta National Women's Amateur, making the cut and shooting a +2 74 at Augusta.

Ceiling: Good showing at Big Tens, advance to nationals. 72 teams make the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is in, and with any luck they'll be in and playing in the East Lansing regional (so I can go).

Northwestern is the runaway favorite in the Big Ten, ranked #11 nationally. The next Big Ten team is #31 MSU, followed by #32 Purdue and Michigan at #36. If Michigan can maintain that top 4 at the Big Ten Tournament, that would be a good showing.

The top 5 teams at six regionals advance to nationals for 36. That puts Michigan at the exact cut line for being favored to advance.

Floor: Bouncing out at regionals. As we said, Michigan's making the tournament. Last year they came 11 strokes short of advancing, it's not hard to see the path to Michigan getting eliminated a little earlier than they'd like, even if Borja or Monet Chun score well enough to advance as individuals.

Women's Tennis

So Far: This has been an extremely successful season for Michigan. Michigan is 19-3, and on an 11-match winning streak, the last seven of which are in Big Ten play. They're #2 in the country, and have already proven they can do it on a big stage after making the finals of ITA Indoor Nationals. Kari Miller has worked her way to the #3 singles player. They're good.

Ceiling: National Championship. They were a hair's breadth away from winning indoor nationals and have only lost once since. The top eight seeds guarantee themselves home court through the quarterfinals, and Michigan is pretty damn close to locking up a top 8 seed despite four matches and the conference tourney left to play.

In the Big Ten, they're 7-0, with three teams at 6-1. Michigan will have a chance this Friday to knock one of those teams, #25 Wisconsin, to 6-2, before traveling to Iowa. If they get through this final road trip unscathed, they're going to get through conference play undefeated. Michigan's final two matches are at homes against teams with losing conference records.

Floor: Making it to the neutral-site quarterfinals and crashing out. I don't think Michigan is going to lose an NCAA Tournament match to a lower seed in Ann Arbor, that is just not how I see things happening. This is a high floor, and if I'm picking floor or ceiling it's not floor.

Men's Tennis

So Far: The men haven't quite reached the lofty heights of the women, but are also 6-0 in conference play. However, a somewhat rough non-conference schedule (including an unusual "non-conference" loss to #1 Ohio State) has left them at #35, pretty solidly out of the race to host anything without going on an absolute tear to end the season.

Ceiling: Sneaking out of an away regional. Michigan won't host, but if they make it should at least get out of the first round. From there, they'd be one upset away from putting a nice bow on Sean Maymi's first season as coach.

Floor: Missing the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is at #35, which puts them very close to the line where they need to start worrying about bid thieves in other conference tournaments. Michigan's final two matches are also two of it's most difficult of the season: a road tilt with Ohio State (in-conference this time) and hosting #18 Michigan State. If Michigan were to lose both and stumble too early in the Big Ten Tournament, missing the NCAA Tournament is in play.

Men's Golf

So Far: While Michigan won two tournaments during the fall season, field strength matters quite a bit in golf rankings, and Michigan has struggled with tougher fields. They're currently #88.

Ceiling: Top half finish at the Big Ten Championships. Michigan has finished in 13th (out of 14) at the last three Big Ten Tournaments. They're currently ranked 7th among Big Ten teams. 72 teams make the NCAA Tournament, Michigan is currently ranked #88. I am not actually sure a #7 finish at B1Gs would get them to the NCAA Tourney, but it would at least make the selection show worth watching.

Floor: If the ceiling is being juuuust on the right side of the bubble, the floor is missing the tournament. Not a lot of space between those two outcomes.

Men's Lacrosse

So Far: Michigan is just a year removed from their first NCAA Tournament appearance, and after being upset by Rutgers just fell out of the rankings for the first time this year. Michigan is 1-2 in the Big Ten, splitting their final two matches would set them up for tourney time.

Ceiling: An NCAA Tournament win. Despite falling out of the poll the Wolverines are #17 in RPI. If they can close 1-1 (@ #11 Penn St., v. OSU) and win a Big Ten Tournament game, they might be able to fend off enough bid thieves to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large. If they get that far, there is a solid chance they will face another unseeded team in the first round with a chance to win.

Floor: Going out in the first round of the B1G Tourney and missing the NCAA Tourney. The Big Ten is hard every year, Michigan could end up 1-4 in conference with Rutgers as it's only "bad" conference loss. But, you don't get a bid just for playing in a tough conference.

Women's Lacrosse

So Far: If you read me regularly you are already aware that this is going about as well as it could be. The Wolverines are 13-1 and ranked #6, with their only loss to current #2 Maryland. Since the Maryland loss they have destroyed EMU and won an important road contest against #22 Penn State. This team has high aspirations, and are playing at the right level to achieve them. Michigan's last two games are tough: #8 Johns Hopkins there this Sunday, and #1 Northwestern at home next Sunday.

Ceiling: A Big Ten championship and a national championship. This is not a prediction, but I think you have to consider the team with the best record in the country and the best defense in the country national championship contenders.

To get a little more specific, Michigan winning the Big Ten outright would require some weird upsets to happen elsewhere, but a split trophy is on the table. If Michigan can win it's last two, they will at least share a title with Maryland, though Maryland would get the one seed.

Nationally, Michigan is sixth in RPI with two huge games to go that will boost their strength of schedule. In the Big Ten Tournament, they should play at least one top 5 team. All this to say, Michigan getting one of the top 4 seeds and ensuring home field to the quarterfinals is achievable.

Floor: Hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Even if Michigan loses its last two and then drops the Big Ten Tournament opener, they've probably done enough to host the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament. It would make it a lot tougher to advance out of Ann Arbor as we'd see better opponents, but Michigan has put itself in a position where the floor still involves hosting in the tournament.